If you have been following macro real estate market reports released in January 2019, pending home sales were down 2.3 percent year-over-year. However, the pending contract in January was up 4.6 percent last month compared to December 2018.
Three of the four regions showed declines from a year ago. The Northeast had the only gain in sales of 7.6 percent. The West experienced the biggest dip of 10.1 percent followed by the South with a decline of 3.1 percent. The Midwest had the smallest dip in sales of 0.3 percent.
Is this the tip of the housing bubble burst? What does this mean to the Northern Virginia Real Estate Market place?
In my recent Loudoun county January real estate market report I had cited we are crying the same old song “Low Inventory and Multiple Offers”.
This has caused anxiety and stress especially among our 1st time home buyers in Fairfax and Loudoun county of Virginia. If you have read my past blogs you know I believe we are still not as expensive market compared to New York, Seattle or San Francisco. I understand our wounds from the last housing bubble is still fresh in our heart and mind.
“Are we buying a home in a Bubble? Should we wait or buy now?”
Here is a scenario if my home buyers decide to wait until the market cools down. If the housing market slows down and we drop house price by 5% however interest rate rises by 0.5%.
The difference of $14.50 does not include tax benefits homeowners receive on their annual tax returns nor it includes the psychological advantages(pride) of being a homeowner.
According to U.S. Census Bureau, a recent report released the residential vacancies decreased to 6.6% in Q4 (2018) compared to Q4th in 2017 (6.9%), third quarter 2018 (7.1%).
Which means buyers who are struggling to buy a home in this tight inventory market are going to rent. When the rental vacancy decline we start seeing a demand for rental property which leads to higher rent. During our spring to summer market, you have to add relocating families in the area.
Looking back as a Northern Virginia Realtor for over 14+ years if I had the same home on the market in 2005, 2011 and 2018 how would the home seller be doing today?
The home sellers would be about the same price as in 2005 and 2018 while in 2009-2011 he/she would be at the bottom of the housing pricing.
Everyone already knows Northern Virginia especially Fairfax and Loudoun have a population with high income, strong skills, and abundance of employment opportunity. That brings up consumer confidence and demand to OWN a home.
I understand this is easy said as a local Realtor. If you have lost multiple bids or exhausted with house hunting take a break but don’t give up!! You will have to face this challenge at some point or the other. If you don’t fight during the crazy market when inventory is at its best you will deal with NO home on the market challenge. It is not a win-win.
Decide for yourself what is the right time and buy it when you are financially and emotionally ready to be a homeowner.